MLB Daily Picks – FREE pick for June 30th is Atlanta

MLB Daily Picks FREE pick of the day is Atlanta:

Fixture: Arizona @ Atlanta
Time/Date: 1:35 PM ET, June 30, 2013
Pick: Atlanta
Odds: -148 (1.68 in decimal odds) @ Pinnacle

This will be the final game of 3 game series played in Atlanta. Atlanta won 3-0 on Friday and 11-5 last night. They are now leading the season series 4-3.

Atlanta is leading National League East with 47-34 record. They have the best home record in majors with 27 victories in 38 games played in Atlanta. Arizona is leading National League West with 42-38 record. Arizona lost 5 out of their last 6 games overall and 7 out of their last 8 road games.

Both teams scored 340 runs so far, but Atlanta's defense has allowed 53 runs less than Arizona's.

Atlanta is sending out left handed Paul Maholm. He is 8-6, 3.75 ERA in 16 games in 2013. In his last start, 7 days ago in Milwaukee, he has recorded a win allowing 4 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Despite that road victory he is not very good on the road where he is 4-4, 5.09 ERA in 10 starts, but at home, Maholm is much better. He is 4-2, 1.80 ERA in 6 home starts. Maholm was 0-3 against Arizona before winning the last matchup, allowing 1 run in 7 innings in an 8-1 victory July 13 last season while pitching for the Cubs. Atlanta is 4-0 in Maholm's last 4 Sunday starts, 7-2 in Maholm's last 9 home starts and 6-2 in Maholm's last 8 starts as a home favorite.

Trevor Cahill will be starting for Arizona today. He is 3-9, 4.29 ERA after 16 starts this season. Cahill is winless in last 7 starts, going 0-5, 7.34 ERA and batters are hitting .329 against him during that period. Cahill is 0-2, 6.75 ERA in 2 career starts against Atlanta, both last season. Arizona is 0-4 in Cahill's last 4 road starts.

Arizona is 4-11 in the last 15 meetings against Atlanta and 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Atlanta and I expect them to lose today.