MLB Daily Picks – FREE pick for August 5th is Kansas City

MLB Daily Picks FREE pick of the day is Kansas City:

Fixture: Minnesota @ Kansas City
Time/Date: 8:10 PM ET, August 5, 2013
Pick: Kansas City
Odds: -153 (1.65 in decimal odds) @ Pinnacle

This will be the first game of 3 game series played in Kansas City. Kansas City leads the season series 10-3, outscoring Minnesota 63-45.

Kansas City is third in American League Central with 56-52 record and they are 27-24 at home. Minnesota is 4th in same division with 48-60 record, 8 games behind Kansas City. They are 22-33 on the road.

Kansas City is 13-3 since the All-Star break and they have won 11 of their last 12 games.

Kansas pitchers have the beast team ERA in American League, 3.58.Minnesota's pitchers are ranked 11th in American League with 4.28 ERA.

Kansas City is sending out Jeremy Guthrie, who is 11-7, 4.22 ERA in 22 starts this season. He is 3-0, 4.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. In 18 innings of work combined over those 3 starts he has allowed 8 earned runs, while striking out 16. He has pitched for at least 6 innings in 20 of his 22 starts. Guthrie's last win came against Minnesota where he has allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings. He is 3-1, 3.24 ERA in 4 starts against Minnesota this season and 7-3, 3.29 ERA in 11 career starts and 2 relief appearances against them. Kansas City is 15-2 in Guthrie's last 17 home starts.

Minnesota's catcher Joe Mauer has just 2 hits in 11 at-bats against Guthrie.

Kevin Correia will be starting for Minnesota tonight. He is 7-7, 4.49 ERA after 21 starts in 2013. He faced Kansas City 5 days ago and recorded a no-decision allowing 2 earned runs on 10 hits. Correia is 0-1, 4.91 ERA in 3 starts against Kansas City this season and 0-2, 5.01 ERA in 4 career starts against them. Correia has been excellent pitching at home this season, going 5-1, 3.28 ERA in 11 home starts, but on the road he is just 2-6 with 6.11 ERA in 10 starts. Opponents are batting .338 against him when pitching away from Minneapolis. Minnesota is 1-6 in Correia's last 7 starts as an underdog, 1-6 in Correia's last 7 starts, 0-4 in Correia's last 4 road starts and 0-4 in Correia's last 4 starts as a road underdog.

Kansas City is 6-1 in last 7 home games against Minnesota and I expect them to win tonight.