MLB Daily Picks – FREE pick for July 23rd is Colorado

MLB Daily Picks FREE pick of the day is Colorado:

Fixture: Miami @ Colorado
Time/Date: 8:40 PM ET, July 23, 2013
Pick: Colorado
Odds: -125 (1.80 in decimal odds) @ Pinnacle

This will be the second game of 4 game series played in Denver. Miami won 3-1 last night.

Colorado is third in National League West with 48-52 record, they are 28-23 at home. Miami is last in National League East with 36-61 record. Despite winning yesterday they are still the worst road team in MLB with just 15 victories in 49 away games.

Miami scored 3 runs yesterday, but before that they've gone 37 innings without a run, longest such streak in MLB in last 28 years. Miami has the weakest defense in MLB with just 309 runs scored in 97 games, just 3.19 runs per game. Colorado scored 441 runs, holding the 8th place in MLB.

Colorado is one of two teams in National League who have 3 players with 50 or more RBI's, left fielder Carlos Gonzalez (66), right fielder Michael Cuddyer (56) and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (55).

Jhoulys Chacin will be starting for Colorado tonight. He is 9-4, 3.50 ERA in 18 starts this season. Chacin is 6-1, 1.94 ERA in his last 7 starts, only once allowing more than 2 runs during that period. His 3.64 career ERA is the lowest in Colorado's history (only including pitchers with at least 75 starts). Colorado is 4-0 in Chacin's last 4 starts as a home favorite, 4-0 in Chacin's last 4 starts as a favorite, 4-1 in Chacin's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 in Chacin's last 5 starts vs. National League East teams.

Miami's starter will be Jose Fernandez, who is 5-5, 2.75 ERA after 18 starts in 2013. Rookie Fernandez has allowed fewer than 2 runs in 9 out of his 18 starts, and opponents are hitting just .196 against him, but Miami is 1-4 in Fernandez's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

Miami is 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog, 1-4 in their last 5 overall, 2-8 in their last 10 Tuesday games, 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

Colorado is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and I expect them to win tonight.