MLB Daily Picks – FREE pick for July 9th is Cincinnati

MLB Daily Picks FREE pick of the day is Cincinnati:

Fixture: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
Time/Date: 8:10 PM ET, July 9, 2013
Pick: Cincinnati
Odds: -135 (1.74 in decimal odds) @ Pinnacle

This will be the second game of 3 game series played in Milwaukee. Milwaukee won 4-3 last night. Cincinnati is leading the season series 5-2, outscoring Milwaukee 34-25.

Cincinnati is 3rd in National League Central with 50-39 record. Milwaukee is last in the same division with 36-52 record, 13-5 games behind Cincinnati. Milwaukee is 21-25 at home this season.

Cincinnati is sending out a lefty Tony Cingrani, who is 3-0, 3.40 ERA after 8 starts and 5 relief appearances in 2013. He is back in the rotation because of Johnny Cueto’s injury. Cingrani allowed 2 runs in 5.2 innings of a 3-2 win over San Francisco 6 days ago, his first start since June 11. He faced Milwaukee on May 10 and surrendered 2 runs on 5 hits in 4 innings of work. Cincinnati is 4-0 in Cingrani's last 4 starts as a favorite, 5-1 in Cingrani's last 6 starts and 4-1 in Cingrani's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Wily Peralta will be starting for Milwaukee tonight. He is 5-9, 5.27 ERA in 18 starts this season. Only 3 out of his last 10 starts were quality ones. His home games ERA of 6.12 is almost 2 runs worse compared to his road games ERA of 4.37. He received an average of 2.43 runs of support in his last 7 games, including a total of 3 runs over his last 4. Peralta is 0-2, 3.78 ERA in 3 career starts against Cincinnati. Milwaukee is 3-8 in Peralta's last 11 starts, 1-4 in Peralta's last 5 home starts and 0-5 in Peralta's last 5 starts vs. National League Central teams.

Milwaukee is 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win and 3-13 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Cincinnati is 13-4 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing record, 13-4 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 9-3 in their last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cincinnati is 6-2 in the last 8 h2h meetings against Milwaukee and I expect them to win tonight.