MLB Daily Picks – FREE pick for July 4th is Cincinnati

MLB Daily Picks FREE pick of the day is Cincinnati:

Fixture: San Francisco @ Cincinnati
Time/Date: 1:10 PM ET, July 4, 2013
Pick: Cincinnati
Odds: -129 (1.78 in decimal odds) @ Pinnacle

This will be the final game of 4 game series played in Cincinnati. Cincinnati took all 3 games last 3 days: 8-0, 3-1 and 3-2. San Francisco had only 7 hits in those 3 games. They are 2-11 in their last 13 games overall. San Francisco has scored fewer than 3 runs in 10 of its last 13 games.

San Francisco's batters are definitely in poor form lately. Their third baseman Pablo Sandoval is 1-for-29 with 11 strikeouts in his last 29 at-bats, right fielder Hunter Pence is 2 for his last 25 and catcher Buster Posey is hitless in his last 9 at-bats.

San Francisco is last in National League West with 39-45 record and they are only 15-30 on the road. Cincinnati is 3rd in National League Central with 49-36 record. They are one of the best home teams in MLB with 29 wins in 43 games played in Cincinnati.

Mike Leake will be starting for Cincinnati today. He is 7-3, 2.52 ERA after 16 starts in 2013. Leake has been superb in his last 9 starts, going 5-1, 1.31 ERA while allowing 1 earned run or less in 7 out of those 9 games. Leake has been great against San Francisco during a three-start winning streak in the regular season, posting a 0.77 ERA while striking out 19 and walking two in 23.1 innings of work combined. Cincinnati is 6-0 in Leake's last 6 starts as a favorite.

Matt Cain will be San Francisco's starter today. Cain is 5-4, 4.29 ERA in 17 starts this season. He has recorded just 1 victory in his last 6 starts despite allowing 3 runs or fewer 5 times during that period. Cain is 5-6, 3.74 ERA in 12 starts against Cincinnati. San Francisco is 1-4 in Cain's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 1-4 in Cain's last 5 starts vs. National League Central teams and 3-7 in Cain's last 10 starts vs. Cincinnati.

Cincinnati's right fielder Jay Bruce is 8 for 10 with a home run and 3 doubles against Cain.

Cincinnati is 4-1 in Leake's last 5 starts vs. San Francisco and I expect Cincinnati to win today.